China's economy to grow by 8.5%

Beijing: China's economy will grow by 8.5 percent in 2012, a think-tank has said.

It faces a significant downward pressure this year due to complicated situations, said Li Wei, director of the State Council's Development Research Centre.

China's annual export growth is likely to slow to 10 percent from 20.3 percent in 2011, as the global economic outlook has been shadowed by slow economic recovery in the US and Europe's sovereign debt crisis, Li said Thursday.

He projected the country's fixed-asset investment to grow by some 20 percent, down by four percentage points from a year earlier, as the manufacturing and real estate sectors have been hit by slowing exports and curbing policies, respectively.

A moderate economic slowdown will help to curb inflation triggered by excess demand and also encourage more mergers and acquisitions, which will speed up the adjustment of China's economic structure, he said at a conference in Guiyang.

Once the potential economic growth rate begins a downward trend, expansionary measures cannot increase the growth rate, but only lead to a "bubble" economy, Xinhua quoted him as saying.

Bureau Report

PBOC adviser predicts yuan stability in 18 months

IT may take up to 18 months for China's currency to stabilize, until then the yuan may keep moving up and down, said Li Daokui, an adviser to the People's Bank of China, the central bank.

"The yuan exchange rate will undergo gradual adjustment for one year to a year and a half before it can stabilize. In other words, the yuan may be able to fluctuate in both directions until then," the China Securities Journal quoted Li as saying yesterday.

The yuan has gained nearly 30 percent since China broke its peg to the US dollar in 2005. Li said the yuan is now close to a balanced level and China's trade surplus is likely to fall below 1 percent of its gross domestic product this year. The yuan gained 0.02 percent this week to close at 6.2978 yesterday, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. Li said his estimation was based on relatively steady growth in China and around the world.

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